ALLIED EQUITY A Diversified Mortgage Company
400 North Mountain Ave., Suite 223, Upland, CA 91786
Phone  909-932-9226 Fax  909-803-9840

Mortgage Related News

Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in SeptemberOctober indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although household spending has been rising at a strong pace, business fixed investment and exports remain weak. On a 12--month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed. Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. InThe light of the implications...(read more)

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NAR Forecasts on GDP, Rate Cuts, and Probability of Recession

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) used the occasion of a summit headed by Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson to release its forecast for housing and the economy over the next year. The predictions were consensus estimates from 14 leading economists who participated in the summit and were surveyed last week prior to the Wednesday meeting. The forecast was presented by NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun during a conference call, but the sound quality of the transmission was extremely poor. In the cause of accuracy, the predictions below are from a very brief press release NAR distributed prior to the call. The release did not cover all of the details which Yun presented. Yun said the most important question being asked about next year is whether there will be a recession...(read more)

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Servicing Primer and Prepayment Speeds; Retention, Reno, Non-QM Products

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Aloha! As any servicer with borrowers in Hawai’i knows, if you’re going to ask, “Is Ms. Keihanaikukauakahihuliheekahaunaele* home?” or “Do you live on Kaalualu Waiohinu Rd.?”, you’d better be able to pronounce them. In the 1960s, fewer than 2,000 people spoke Hawaiian fluently, just a handful of whom were children. That changed over the next two decades, and now the number of Hawaiian speakers is about 18,000, half of whom are fluent, thanks to the creation of immersion schools dedicated to saving the language from extinction. And customer service-focused functions, like loan servicing & debt collection, hire their share. More on servicing below. (*A real name.) Shifts in servicing A major component of rate sheet pricing is mortgage servicing rights...(read more)

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Everyone is Still Refinancing; FHA Refis at 3 Year High

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage applications activity recovered strongly during the week ended December 6 after the usual Thanksgiving week lull. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, which measures the volume of mortgage applications, increased 3.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the week ended November 29 and was 47 percent higher on an unadjusted basis. The earlier week's data had been adjusted to account for the holiday. Refinancing continues to drive the market . The share of those applications made up 62.5 percent of the total submitted during the week, up from 59.0 percent the prior week. The Refinance Index rose 9 percent week-over-week and was 146 percent higher than the same week in 2018. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.4 percent from one...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Fed Reading From Same Script as Jobs Report

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Last week, I stunned the world by claiming that NFP (the nonfarm payrolls component of the big jobs report) "didn't matter." OK, maybe not the whole world, and maybe people weren't completely stunned, but in the long-term market following context, such claims are risky business. I'll admit, I was tempted to second guess myself when the number crushed expectations and bond yields spiked quickly, but I doubled down in that morning's analysis, essentially saying this too would pass. Simply put, while historically massive market movers will always command some short-term volatility potential, their lasting impact is limited in this particular market environment. The first reason for that--these days anyway--is the trade war. While some pundits may claim that the parts...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Trade Headlines Stealing Thunder From Heavy Hitters

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Last week saw an apparently important jobs report ATTEMPT to have a lasting impact on financial markets only for the move to be completely erased by this morning. Labor market data was already a bit of an outcast owing to its consistently strong performance in recent months/years (i.e. labor market strength is the rule, not the exception. Therefore, the strong report is less of a surprise and thus less of a market mover). But if we could only pick one reason for markets to ignore jobs data (or MOST data for that matter), it's the uncertain economic implications of an eventual trade deal. That also helps explain all of today's intraday volatility as bond yields were bumped up early in the domestic session by one batch of headlines and then again about an hour later by another batch of...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Ahead of Fed Announcement

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved up modestly today as bond markets weakened in response to trade headlines. This week's key consideration on the trade front is whether or not the planned December 15th tariff increase is delayed, canceled, or confirmed. In general, a delay or cancelation would be bad for rates, but markets are already expecting a delay to some extent. The bigger deal would be waking up Monday morning of next week to find the tariff hike had been implemented. In that case, rates would likely benefit (i.e. move lower!). Between now and then, we are most likely to see moderate volatility in a fairly narrow range. Several optimistic trade headlines put upward pressure on rates today, but not enough to push them outside their recent range. Tomorrow brings a policy announcement from the Fed ...(read more)

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Home Purchase Sentiment Rebounds to Near Record Highs

Posted To: MND NewsWire

After a steep dive in October, America's attitude toward buying a home is on the rise again. Positive answers to the question of whether it is a good time to buy on Fannie Mae's November National Housing Survey rose 11 percentage points to a net of 32 percent, 9 points higher than in November 2018 and its highest point since March 2018. That answer helped drive the Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) up 2.7 points to 91.5. The index had declined the two previous months but is now up 5.3 points year-over-year and is close to returning to the all time high of 93.8 set in August. The HPSI is constructed from responses to six questions included in Fannie Mae's monthly National Housing Survey (NHS). Half of the six index components moved higher in November. Also pushing the overall index higher...(read more)

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Automation, Marketing Tools; Shift in Evaluating Credit

Posted To: Pipeline Press

If you knew the value of the house was going to decline, or that the borrower has bad credit and would default, would you make the loan? There’s always a debate about how best to determine creditworthiness based on past behavior (more on that below), but regarding housing prices, last month Arch MI released its quarterly Housing and Mortgage Market Review HaMMR ) report and proprietary risk index showing the top cities across the U.S. where it’s actually more affordable to buy than rent. While we all know it’s expensive to buy in cities like San Jose and Los Angeles, you may be surprised to learn than Syracuse, NY is the #1 city to buy a house (and 30% cheaper than renting ). The top five cities where it’s cheaper to buy vs rent are Syracuse, NY; Rochester, NY; Worcester...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Still Waiting on Bigger Potential Market Movers

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In the grand scheme of things, today will likely be another placeholder of a day unless some unexpected (and fairly significant) trade war update happens to come out. That leaves the afternoon's 10yr auction as the only moderately capable market mover, and even then, we wouldn't want to hold our breath for Treasury auctions to move markets. Being, as we are, in "wait and see" mode, I'd rather take this morning to reflect on a phenomenon from the recent past. Raise your hand if you thought I was a bit crazy to claim "NFP doesn't matter" ahead of last Friday's blowout jobs report, and then if you thought I was even crazier to double down on that claim after stocks and bonds quickly began to respond to the stellar numbers. (My own hand is about halfway up...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Snap Back to Lower Levels

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates reacted somewhat harshly to an incredibly strong jobs report last Friday. At the time, I noted that such a jobs report would typically have done much more damage to rates, but that the current environment mitigates its impact for a few reasons. First off, labor market strength is taken for granted to some extent, because it's been consistently good for about as long as it's even been consistently good! Just as important is the fact that trade war fears are dominating the market's focus. Depending on the outcome of trade negotiations, market watchers expect a fairly wide spectrum of market outcomes. Still, the jobs report has a more consistent track record of causing big market movement than any other piece of economic data. There will always be some obligatory response to a report...(read more)

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FHA's Mortgage Insurance Fund Improvement Has Come a Long Way

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) released its annual Report to Congress several weeks ago, reporting significant improvement in its Mutual Mortgage Insurance (MMI) Fund. Late last week Brian D. Montgomery, FHA Commission and Assistant Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), testified regarding the report to a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee. Montgomery said the MMI's capital ratio increased to 4.84 percent in the 2019 fiscal year (FY2019) from 2.76 percent in FY2018, well above the 2.00 percent statutory minimum. Additionally, MMI Capital was $62.38 billion, an increase of more than $27.52 billion from FY 2018, and perhaps the highest ever. While attributing a significant portion of the improvement both to the fund and FHA's financial position...(read more)

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Lots of Refinancing, So Why Are Servicers Losing Business?

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Black Knight continues to review, in its new Mortgage Monitor , how the effects of nearly a year of lower interest rates have ricocheted throughout the industry. This month's Monitor looks both at loan data from October and from the third quarter of 2019. Prepayments are still running at record high levels , increasing by what the company called "an eye-popping" 132 percent compared to the same time last year. The single month mortality (SMM) rate increased by double digit percentages for every one of the last 15 vintages of loans during September and October with some of the largest gains among loans originated during the housing bubble of 2005 to 2007. By product type, those loans guaranteed through GNMA (VA, FHA, USDA) once again had the highest payoff rate although they increased in October...(read more)

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Investor and Lender FHA & VA Changes; Marketing and Cloud Products

Posted To: Pipeline Press

With the Fed content with rates hovering here for the foreseeable future , lenders can focus on other things. "Rob, are you hearing that real estate agents are nervous about Zillow's business moves?" Of course. There are a lot of people who wonder why real estate agents, according to some, are funding their own demise. But Zillow's stockholders benefit, right?! There is chatter about a Zillow program, started in Phoenix, where buying leads on Zillow goes away with 9 days' notice and Zillow will demand a 35% referral fee from any buyer an agent closes that comes from Zillow for the next 2 years. And there are rumors of this going nationwide in 2020. Face it: Zillow is a fierce competitor that has dominated advertisers like Google. Industry analysts will suggest that real estate agents need to...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Last Serious Trading Week of 2019

Posted To: MBS Commentary

It's been almost exactly 3 months since the quick rate spike in early September. That, of course, followed an impressive run to the lowest rates in more than 3 years in August. The combination of those long-term lows and the quick bounce set the stage for a consolidation trend that's been intact ever since. That's not to say that yields haven't traveled outside those levels, but not in a meaningful, sustained way. Even then, we could simply say that yields haven't ventured back into the previous range since breaking into the current range in August. The dividing line is roughly 1.96% in terms of 10yr yields. If we approach the range in horizontal terms, the week begins with rates almost perfectly centered in the most recent section of the range. It's possible that the...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: NFP Swings For Fences, But Still Comes Up Short

Posted To: MBS Commentary

This morning's commentary was titled "NFP Doesn't Matter (Even If It Looks Like It Does)." Apparently NFP didn't like being called out because it did everything in its power to prove me wrong. Ultimately though, it would need to create momentum that lasts beyond today in order to join the ranks of jobs reports that have been this much stronger than expected. As it stands, it wasn't able to create momentum that lasted more than 5 minutes. Those 5 minutes were fairly brutal however. By 8:35am, 10yr yields had launched from 1.79-ish to nearly 1.86%. They stayed in that range for more than an hour, but for those of us drinking the "NFP doesn't matter" kool-aid, the writing was already on the wall. Here it was: an obligatory knee-jerk reaction to a massively...(read more)

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A Jobs Report This Strong Usually Does Much More Damage to Mortgage Rates

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates were pushed higher for the 3rd day in a row following an incredibly strong jobs report. For decades, if you were to ask anyone with a reasonable level of experience following rates/bonds to pick one economic report that bonds care about more than all others, the jobs report would basically be the only answer. There isn't even a close second. In fact, as far as economic data goes, the jobs report is still at the top of the heap. That said, it's typical impact has been lessened for two reasons. First off, ALL economic data is being taken with a grain of salt because traders assume things will change in some unforeseeable way after the US/China trade negotiations run their course. Additionally, the jobs market has simply been very strong for a very long time , so unless it begins...(read more)

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Loan Characteristics Mostly Account for Conforming/Jumbo Spread

Posted To: MND NewsWire

For many years homebuyers looking for homes priced above entry level employed every device they could to keep their loan amount below whatever might be the current limit for conforming (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) loans. It might mean determining between the purchase of two similarly priced homes if only one squeaked by under the limit. Buyers came up with larger down payments, dipping more deeply into savings, hitting up the bank of mom and dad, or employing piggy-back second mortgages. Why? Because a jumbo loan would almost always have a higher interest rate than a conforming loan. That higher monthly payment could even mean the difference between qualifying for the loan or not. However, starting in 2013 the spread between a conforming and a jumbo loan began to narrow, and today's jumbo loans...(read more)

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LO Jobs; Budgeting Tools; Why You Should Care About Trade and Tariffs

Posted To: Pipeline Press

I hope that you didn’t lay off your compliance department earlier this year, because there’s a lot going on. For example, from out of California comes the CCPA, effective in less than four weeks on 1/1/20. Susan Milazzo, the CEO of the California MBA, summed it up. “In very general terms, the key difference with the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA), as compared to other privacy laws, is that previously companies had to agree not to sell or transfer data if a consumer requested as well as companies have a responsibility to maintain data security for consumer information. The CCPA gives consumers the right to ask businesses, that fit certain criteria, to provide them all of the personal information that business has on them and/or ask the business to delete that information...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: NFP Doesn't Matter (Even If It Looks Like It Does)

Posted To: MBS Commentary

First Friday of the month, and thus time for the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. Also known simply as "the jobs report," no other piece of economic data has as much of a track record of inspiring massive market movement. But in the current environment, no other piece of data is as far from its historical level of significance. Part of this is purely a factor of where we are in the economic cycle. Job growth and unemployment have been so good for so long that no one is really going to care much about it until it begins to show cracks. The more timely part has to do with the trade war and the fact that the manufacturing sector takes the biggest hit. Manufacturing comprises a small portion of job growth. Beyond that, the trade war resolution (or lack thereof) is something that will have...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: NFP's Stolen Thunder

Posted To: MBS Commentary

After the little bout of whipsaw volatility of the past 3 trading sessions, it will be a tall order for even the mighty NFP to move markets much tomorrow (as long as it's not insanely far from the forecast). Thank the trade war for that. Trade headlines took a big bite out of yields on Tuesday morning and subsequent headlines pushed back in the other direction about 24 hours later. But markets continued to move after that, and it would be very hard to chalk today's movement up to trade. Reason being, stocks and bond yields moved in opposite directions during the morning's most active trading. If trade were the driver, we'd see stronger correlation. The dark horse market mover isn't easily identified, but the best guess would be a simple move to the sidelines on both sides...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Snap Back to 3-Week Highs

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates have seen a fair amount of volatility so far this week, dropping quickly on Tuesday and moving in the opposite direction since then. Between yesterday and today, that big drop from earlier in the week has been completely erased. The result is an average conventional 30yr fixed rate that's right in line with those seen on Monday. Unfortunately, that also means today's rates are in line with their highest levels of the past 3 weeks. You'd have to go back to November 14th to see anything higher. The broader, relative range continues to offer good perspective . The average lender is still easily under 4% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. Perhaps even more reassuring is the fact that the gap between the highs and lows over this 3 week period is an eighth of a percentage point at...(read more)

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October's Increases Suggest a Reversal in Home Price Slump

Posted To: MND NewsWire

After slowing for 17 months, home price gains rose 3.8 percent in July and then held nearly flat in August according to Black Knight's Home Price Index. Now the first tranche of price data for October seems to indicate a rapid shift into an acceleration of gains. The company says the rate of annual price gains during the month was 4.25 percent. This is growth of 0.35 percent from the 3.9 percent annual appreciation in September and the largest month-to-month change since July 2013. The annual increase is also the largest in nine months. The September to October change was 0.33 percent, also notable as it is nearly six times the long-term (five-year) average increase for October and the largest increase in any October since 2005. The company says these numbers reflect home sale activity for...(read more)

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Access to Government Backed Mortgages Finally Improves

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI) moved significantly higher in November, gaining 2.1 percent compared to October. The index measures borrower access to mortgage credit and has components for each of the major product types. A higher index number indicates that access is improving. The Index level for the month was 188.9. The Government MCAI increased by 2.9 percent and the Conventional MCAI moved 1.4 percent higher. The two components of the Conventional MCAI, the Jumbo MCAI and the Conforming MCAI rose 2.2 percent and 0.2 percent respectively. "Credit availability rose for the third straight month in November, with an increase in supply across all loan types ," said Joel Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting...(read more)

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Workflow, Webinar, Just-Missed Products; Vendor News; Rates Steady

Posted To: Pipeline Press

In the lending world, folks are talking about the change in FHA loan levels . Economists and investors have their eye on debt. Have a balance on your credit card? Or a mortgage, or car loan? You're not alone. Federal, corporate and household debt worldwide stands at an unprecedented $250 trillion , nearly three times the volume of economic output. (To keep things in perspective, if you paid $1 million a year to reduce that, it would take 250 million years, not including accrued interest.) Does anyone care? Some economists say borrowing should increase and debt is not a problem as long as it remains sustainable, while others say the effectiveness of monetary policy will be curtailed if a crisis occurs. Fortunately in MBS land, US mortgage delinquencies have fallen to near 25-year lows. Hopefully...(read more)

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Joe Sanchez
Allied Equity
Ph: 909-932-9226Fax:909-803-9840
400 North Mountain Ave., Suite 223
Upland, CA 91786 US
CA DRE License # 01201910, NMLS: 359382, Company ID: 359090
www.alliedequity.com
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