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400 North Mountain Ave., Suite 223, Upland, CA 91786
Phone  909-932-9226 Fax  909-803-9840

Mortgage Related News

MBS RECAP: Best Day of Gains Since Early Feb Stock Sell-Off

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Early in the month (Feb 5th), bonds had their best day of the year as they soaked up a mere fraction of the cash that was fleeing from equities markets and looking for a safe haven. There was no such rout in stocks today, but bonds managed to put in a rather respectable performance nonetheless. Granted, it was nowhere near the same scale as the Feb 5th rally, but it was the best day of the year apart from that. Early gains came courtesy of an ongoing rally in European bond markets. German Bunds are now back at yields not seen since late January . At that time, US 10yr yields were in the low 2.7s. The domestic session got a boost from NY Fed President Dudley, who not only refuted a just-released white paper labeling the Fed's bond buying as largely ineffective, but who also commented on...(read more)

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Best Week of 2018 For Rates (Not Quite as Cool as it Sounds)

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates fell again for the second straight day--something that has only happened a few other times so far this year. On an even brighter note, this was the first week of 2018 where the average lender ended the week offering rates that were at least as good as those seen at the end of the previous week. In most cases, today's rates are right in line with those seen last Friday. For the average lender, that means conventional 30yr fixed rates of 4.5 to 4.625% on top tier scenarios. The same scenarios were seeing quotes of 3.875-4.0% at the beginning of the year. As we discussed yesterday, "good days" for mortgage rates need some context at the moment. Yesterday was a good day too, but it happened to follow the worst day in more than 4 years (in terms of outright levels). In general, as...(read more)

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Foreclosures, Inventories Move Higher as Hurricane Moratorium Ends

Posted To: MND NewsWire

The effects of last summer's hurricanes, while fading from their early impact on loan performance stats, are still being felt. Black Knight reports, in its "First Look" at January data, that past due mortgages nationwide declined by 8.6 percent or 210,000 loans when compared to December but are still 1.3 percent higher than in January 2017. The U.S. delinquency rate in January was 4.41 percent including all past due loans not yet in foreclosure. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are blamed for 146,000 loans that remain delinquent in Texas and Florida. Of those, 132,000 are now seriously delinquent, that is 90 or more days past due Puerto Rico is not usually included in national delinquency statistics, but Black Knight says 57,000 loans remain delinquent in the territory because of Hurricane Maria...(read more)

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Refinancing: Seasonal Pattern or Last Chance Surge?

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Although the company said it was regular January phenomenon, last month's surge in refinancing also feels a little like borrowers "headed for the last roundup." Ellie Mae's Origination Insight Report noted that the share of refinancing originations shot up by 5 percentage points in January, accounting for 45 percent of all closed loans. The surge coincided with a jump in the average interest rate of closed loans, from 4.28 percent in December to 4.33 percent, making for a 13-basis point increase since October. It was the highest share for refinancing, which dipped to less than a third of closed loans in early summer, since January. The December 2016 to January 2017 increase was 1 point. "As we ring in 2018, we see refinances rise as a percent of overall loan volume, something that we have seen...(read more)

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Reverse Mortgage and USDA/Rural News; Economics and Rates

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Are you an LO interested in receiving a $5 Amazon Gift Card for your participation in a short survey? Tobe Agency, a digital marketing agency focused on the mortgage vertical is trying to understand the challenges that LOs face in their jobs through a 5-7 minute survey. “Ultimately we’d like to understand what content LOs might find valuable to address these challenges. You can take the survey here and as a thank you, we’ll send you a $5 Amazon Gift card. If you’re interested in learning the results of the survey, please contact Andrew Hong directly!” Reverse Mortgage News Moody’s reports that RMBS ( reverse mortgage backed security ) issuance volume increased in Q4 2017, up 9% from Q3 2017 and approximately 64% from Q4 2016. Finance of America Reverse LLC...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Is Europe Back On US Bond Market Radar?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In 2010 and 2011, the early phases of the European financial crisis caused movement in US bond markets that puzzled a majority of domestic investors. 2012 (the apex of the monetary contagion concerns) and 2014 (the inception of the long road to ECB QE) took that theme to another level. If we then conclude that it was Brexit that was primarily responsible for US yields being able to reach new all-time lows in June 2016, that means Europe has had an exceptionally heavy influence for years. But things changed in 2017. News and risks in the Eurozone quickly became boring after Brexit. Markets largely moved on to trading the new and unexpected realities of the Trump administration--a theme that's arguably dominated most of the big picture bond market momentum since election night in late 2016...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: One Of Those Calm Days That Almost Makes You Wonder

Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBS gained a quarter of a point today and 10yr yields fell more than 3bps despite stock market gains (albeit from yesterday's weak closing levels) and ample corporate bond market issuance. That might lead to some small amount of optimism or relief were it not for the fact that yesterday saw bond markets close at the weakest levels in more than 4 years. In other words, today was just another one of those "good" days that we're bound to encounter as the broader trend toward higher rates forges on. Will the forging stop at some point? Yes, of course, but nothing about today suggests it will be any time soon. Could it still be some time soon? Yes, that's always POSSIBLE, but if such a thing were to happen, it stands a far greater chance of being a temporary correction in the...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Just Slightly Lower

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates fell modestly today as underlying bond markets experienced a rare absence of volatility. Rather than view this as some sort of turning point for what has been a fairly relentless march to higher ground, these days are best seen as periodic corrections/consolidations to the prevailing trend. They are normal features of such trends and they've all been "false positives" so far in 2018 when it comes to identifying an opportunity to get more optimistic about rates moving lower. Bottom line: today is merely the day after hitting the highest rates in more than 4 years. We'd need to see a whole lot more than one day of modest gains before anything other than a defensive, lock-biased stance makes sense for prospective mortgage borrowers. Loan Originator Perspective Rates improved slightly...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: 2 Charts That Help Explain the Big Picture

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There's nothing significant on the econ calendar today, and bonds are starting out by retreating (in a good way) back into the center of the ongoing uptrend. On days like today, bond analysis has to look to the bigger picture (because there's not much to say about today). If you didn't catch the last big-picture explanation on why things are the way they are, the best recent example is probably THIS ONE about short-term rates driving long term rates. I revisited that topic in yesterday's Day Ahead to some extent ( here ) as well. Today's first chart speaks to the same sort of phenomenon whereby the shorter end of the yield curve is pushing longer-term rates reluctantly higher. I say "reluctantly" because long term rates really want to see more evidence of rising...(read more)

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Training and Resources; Economy Continues to Move Rates Higher

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Jobs & housing drive the economy, and yesterday we learned that Existing Home Sales fell 3.2% in January, according to NAR . Lawrence Yun, NAR's Chief Economist said: “The utter lack of sufficient housing supply and its influence on higher home prices muted overall sales activity in much of the U.S. last month.” Buyer traffic is strong, but sales have lagged last January’s pace. “It’s very clear that too many markets right now are becoming less affordable and desperately need more new listings to calm the speedy price growth.” Industry observers ask, “Baby Boomers are going to move… where?” Mark W. observed, “The MBA tells us that refis are still 44% of all new loan apps. That is fascinating to me since it should be closer to...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Fed Minutes or Same Old Trend. Either Way, Bonds Didn't Like It

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The Fed released the minutes from its late January meeting today. Markets thought about them for 20 minutes and then tanked. What's up with that?! Looking at rate volatility as a factor of Fed policy can be tricky business. On the one hand, it would be easy to argue that the Fed has more power than anything else to affect the trajectory of interest rates. On the other hand, it could easily be argued that the Fed is merely responding to prevailing economic and financial conditions to the best of its ability and that appearance of the Fed's outsized impact on rates has more to do with a mismatch between the market's expectations and the Fed's thinking. With all of the above in mind, the meeting minutes provide market participants with a much clearer look inside the Fed's collective...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Hit New 4-Year Highs

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates continued higher today following the release of the Minutes from the Federal Reserve's (aka "The Fed") most recent policy meeting. The Fed was slightly more upbeat than markets expected, saying that most members agreed that a stronger economy increased the likelihood of further rate hikes. Although the Fed Funds Rate doesn't directly dictate mortgage rates, there is plenty of long-term correlation. Because the Fed only meets 8 times a year to adjust rates (and rarely adjusts rates on all 8 occasions), bond markets (which include mortgage rates) are constantly adjusting to what the Fed will probably do in the future. Of course, it could be argued that both the Fed AND financial markets are simply adjusting to the state of the economy, inflation, etc., but that's more of a philosophical...(read more)

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Existing Home Sales Decline, Inventory Still a Big Issue

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Sales of existing homes fell again in January, the second consecutive month-over-month decline. Sales of pre-owned single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and cooperative apartments were down 3.2 percent compared to December, and the seasonally adjusted annual sales in December, already estimated at a 3.6 percent decline, were revised down even further. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said existing homes sold during the month at a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.38 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 4.8 percent. It was the slowest sales pace since last September and the largest annual loss since a 5.5 percent decline in August 2014. December sales were revised down from 5.570 million to 5.56 million. The months sales results were broad-based. All four U.S. regions...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: Markets Expecting a Challenging Auction and Hawkish Fed Minutes

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today's key events arrive in the afternoon in the form of a 5yr Treasury auction at 1pm and the release of the FOMC Minutes at 2pm. Not to be confused with the Fed Policy Announcement, the Minutes simply provide a more detailed account of the meeting 3 weeks prior that culminated in the most recent policy announcement (in this case, Jan 31st). Because that was a meeting with no rate hike, these meeting minutes are seen as a prime opportunity to foreshadow a hike in the March meeting. Even though the Fed Funds Rate doesn't move in lock-step with longer-term yields, it's important to know that the entirety of the yield curve moves up in anticipation of an eventual peak in the Fed Funds rate. As can be seen in today's chart, sometimes 2yr and 10yr yields follow the rise in Fed...(read more)

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Flagstar's Expansion; News Regarding Freddie and Fannie

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Why couldn’t the sesame seed leave the gambling casino? Because he was on a roll. In an admittedly weak segue, rolls are made in kitchens, and LOs may want to pass this link along to their Realtor clients: here are the top trends this year in kitchens. top trends this year in kitchens . Some of them are pretty interesting. Also of interest is the National Association of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB), an association that represents the interests of individual mortgage loan originators and small to mid-size mortgage businesses, seeking to ban trigger leads . News From the GSEs, Lenders Reacting to Freddie and Fannie Changes Of great interest yesterday for lenders was news that the Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal challenging the profits the government receives from housing giants Fannie...(read more)

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Mortgage Apps Finally Feeling Effects of Higher Rates

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Mortgage application volumes suffered their worst losses of 2018 last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said both purchase mortgages and applications for refinancing were down significantly during the week ended February 16 compared to the prior week. MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of application volume, was fell by 6.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the week ended February 9. It was the largest one-week decline since mid-September. The unadjusted composite was 3 percent lower. The Refinance Index lost 7 percent from a week earlier and the share of applications for refinancing declined to 44.4 percent, more than 2 percentage points below the prior week and the smallest portion since last July. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fared only slightly better...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Unofficial 4th Day of Weekend Leaves Bonds Slightly Weaker

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today was a total dud in terms of volume and volatility. That's not all that uncommon on the Tuesday following a 3-day weekend, especially if there are no major events or headlines. Overnight bond market movement was dictated by an ongoing trend set into motion late last Friday when bonds found the limit of their near-term bullish potential. In other words, bonds rallied rather nicely into the late morning hours as short-sellers covered those short positions. From that point on, volumes decreased and there wasn't enough organic buying demand to maintain the relatively lower yields. European bond markets led another move toward higher yields when they opened at 2:30am ET, but those proved to be the highest yields of the session. EU and US bonds rallied fairly steadily until the 9:30AM...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Unable to Extend Last Week's Gains

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Mortgage rates moved back up today after ending last week on a positive note. Improvements in rates have been uncommon so far in 2018. In fact, we haven't seen more than 2 consecutive days without a move higher. In that sense, today keeps the prevailing trend intact. If there's a saving grace, it's that rates didn't quite rise back above last week's highs. If there's a downside (whatever the opposite of a "saving grace" might be...), it's that rates remain in line with the highest levels in more than 4 years. While we COULD see some relief at some point, there's no telling if that would be a legitimate attempt at a ceiling or merely be a temporary correction before another move higher. Either way, betting on the emergence of a ceiling (via floating one's loan as opposed to locking) hasn't been...(read more)

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MBS Week Ahead: Positions Part 2: Making Better Sense of Early 2018

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Last Friday's Day Ahead was all about positions. Read it HERE , if you haven't done so or need a refresher. It advocated caution with respect to floating or otherwise being optimistic based on early gains because those early gains were likely a product of short-covering. Rampant short-covering is only a concern when short positions are uncommonly abundant. In turn, that sort of abundance is uncommon. It relies on a sea-change in some critical component of the market such as Fed policy, labor markets, fiscal policy, or inflation . That's where things might get frustrating this year--because how much have any of those factors really changed? Let's break them down: 1. Fed policy. No major change. We expected a more aggressive Fed hike path in late 2017 and nothing in early 2018...(read more)

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New Products, Expansion; Legal and Political Updates

Posted To: Pipeline Press

Welcome to Day 1 of the longest period in the United States without a federal holiday: President's Day to Memorial Day. Some will think, “That’s a drag,” while others will think, “That’s more days to fund loans!” Speaking of fundings, the precise HMDA information for 2017 won’t be out until September. But if you want a solid estimates for single family originations in 2017, Marina Walsh, VP of Industry Analysis with the MBA, points out tha its website is a good place for information on units and dollar volume, and thoughts about 2018. Legal and Political Updates There have been developments in repurchase/make-whole litigation. Although the number of repurchase suits appears to have been slowing down, James Brody, Chair of the Mortgage Banking Group...(read more)

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MBS RECAP: Another Chance to Not Get Your Hopes Up

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Tiny pockets of gains have come and gone in the vast sea of red that's dominated 2018 so far. Each pocket has attempted to lure optimists into a "bull trap." In other words, originators want to be bullish on rates, so they're more likely to take the best available opportunities to get bullish--especially if no such opportunities have presented themselves recently. Unfortunately, we're in a pervasive uptrend in rates, and what look like tiny pockets of opportunity have actually been periodic consolidations that help the selling-spree catch its breath before rates continue higher. Is it the same story with the past 2 days of stability? In all likelihood. Granted, the bear case for bonds is i ncreasingly being priced-in , discussed, and understood among traders, but in this...(read more)

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Mortgage Rates Catch a Break Before Long Weekend

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

Financial markets in the US will be closed for President's Day on Monday. Thus, mortgage lenders will not be open, nor will they be accepting locks. Given that mortgage rates took the road less traveled in 2018 and actually moved lower, it's worth having a chat with your mortgage professional if you have a loan in process. Of course, many of you may not be reading this until after the lock window has passed for today, so let's take a look at next week's risks and opportunities . The biggest risk is the same one that's been with us all year. Simply put, rates have been trending higher in a steady but highly convicted fashion, quickly adding a half a percentage point or more to the average 30yr fixed rate quote. As we've been saying all year, it doesn't make sense to bet against that trend until...(read more)

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Fannie Mae: So Now Things are Moving Too Fast?

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Some people are never happy . For most of the ten years following the start of the Great Recession the experts have focused (can we say harped?) on the theme of a slow recovery. Now, after a couple of upticks in the inflation rate, Fannie Mae has headlined its February Economic Developments release "Strong Economic Activity Triggers Overheating Concerns." The company's Economic and Strategic Research Team say economic activity gathered momentum over the last few months and "markets are beginning to appreciate the broader implications of the stronger growth. That realization, along with a change in the direction of monetary policy has introduced some volatility into the economic equation. There were finally some signs that wages were increasing which pushed inflation measures such as 10-year...(read more)

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MBS Day Ahead: In a Position to Improve?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

While they're extremely important to institutional investors and analysts, the role of trading positions in the bond market is one of the most easily overlooked factors in rate movement over shorter time horizons. "Positions" is just a fancy way to refer to how many dollars are betting for or against bonds. This is particularly relevant at the moment because the only traders doing much betting in favor of Treasuries are those that are using Treasuries to hedge positions elsewhere in the market. We can glean this from the CFTC's weekly position report, which breaks Treasury positions into commercial and non-commercial categories. In other words, non-commercial positions tell us the most about how speculators are betting on Treasuries. To say that they're short would be...(read more)

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A Happy New Year for Construction Stats

Posted To: MND NewsWire

Residential construction got off to a strong start in January, with sizable increases in both permits and housing starts and only a slight downturn in completions. The gains follow a particularly disappointing performance in construction starts in December. Statistics were spotty on a regional basis, and especially weak in the Midwest. The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said residential construction permits were at an annual rate of 1,396,000 units, a 7.4 percent increase over both December and January 2017. The annual rate clock in both earlier periods was 1,300,000. The December number was a slight revision from the 1,302,000 originally reported. Permitting exceeded even the highest forecasts. Analysts estimates reported by Econoday ranged from 1,260,000...(read more)

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Joe Sanchez
Allied Equity
Ph: 909-932-9226Fax:909-803-9840
400 North Mountain Ave., Suite 223
Upland, CA 91786 US
CA DRE License # 01201910, NMLS: 359382, Company ID: 359090
www.alliedequity.com
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